Those who topped Omar Bashir, Sudanese long-time despot, are now destroying Sudan. The ongoing conflict between Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and the current strongman Gen Abdel Fattah Burhan’s likely to fell Sudan. You can take this to the bank. Sudan will settle after the two finish each other or being finished by the demonstrators if not the international community though it’s failed to remind them that soon after their duel, they’ll both be delivered to The Hague.
The two would like to avoid being delivered to The Hague to face charges related with genocide they committed in Darfur under Bashir regime not to mention the atrocities they’re still committing currently. Secondly, the duo is not likely to share power. One needs to–––and must–––finish another for another to prevail and survive temporarily. And chances are that the latter is likely to finish the former or vice versa. The duo can be pushed out shall the demonstrators stand their ground. Apart from that, the economic tanking provides a very good impetus and reason for deposing and disposing the couple in power under the marriage of convenience.
As the de facto ruler, Burhan’s what it take to finish depending on how he’ll play his cards since he’s power without the number in the military machinery. Dagalo has the number in the army though he isn't on the seat of power not to mention the lack of wings.
More importantly, the duo weren’t a good couple. They’re united by their struggle for survival. No love or need exist between the duos for anybody except for themselves. Any of the couple can finish another shall an opportunity avail itself. Burhan was unsafe in bed with Dagalo and vice versa. Any of the couple would like to see another gone shall he get and seize the moment. Actually, what's on going's nothing but the dance between two inimical evils. Time'll accurately soon tell and show that this prediction won't come to pass.
Since toppling Bashir, the two exhibited brutality and incompetence Sudan’s never evidenced. Apart from being incompetent criminals, they’d never read from the same script. Thus, it wasn’t if but when the two would turn tables on each other as it recently happened. Currently, Sudan’s on its way to a failed state. The Sudan Armer Force (SAF) and the Rapid Response Forces (RSF)–––an unconstitutional and criminal private army Bashir created headed by Dagalo to help him cling on power–––are doing battle of the destruction of Sudan. For peace lovers, this is the worst thing even though was expected to happen. There are many reasons for such a take. Firstly, the army that took power after the mass actions against Bashir, wasn't different from him and betrayed him. Gen. Abdul-Fattah Burhan, the head of the junta and his deputy Dagalo are all opportunists who can sacrifice even their mothers. This is because of the crimes they committed under Bashir they're now prosecuting while they're but his comrades in crimes.
Actually, the army––––that duped the demonstrators that it hated Bashir––––is the same that kept him in power for over three decades of dictatorship and misrule. Besides, the same army’s no wherewithal to run the country competently. Just imagine. For over three decades they're power, what did they do and what'll they do differently. Armies were created to protect but not to rule the country.
Secondly, the reasons and problems that led to Bashir’s fall from power are still untouched. Bashir’s overthrown after mass demonstrations agitating for the easing in ever increasing costs of living after Sudan lost its source of income (petrodollars) after South Sudan seceded. Also, bad governance and corruption have never been addressed. The situation became even worse than it’s under Bashir compounded by world economic fragility resulting from Covid-19, conflict in Ukraine and natural calamities.
Thirdly, knowing that the heads of the military junta in Sudan are allegedly committed genocide in Sudan, they're not the right people to be at helms in the first place. Despite being incompetent, they too knew themselves. However, out of power, they’d be arrested. Thus, to survive, they’d to cling unto power by all means.
Fourthly, they mismanaged opportunity and power by denying a transition government to assume its power as the mass wanted.
Fifthly, they brutally and stroppily suppressed dissent voices, hence, killing many innocent people who were demonstrating and enjoying their rights to expression and association.
Sixthly, the junta didn't accommodate and protect all those who were in the past regime thus, some elements, just like, the heads of junta felt vulnerable thanks to the crime they committed when they're in power. Therefore, whoever would bring down the junta that overthrow their regime and threw them under the bus, for them, worth supporting in order to try to recoup and restore lost power and privileges.
For the three years the junta's been in power, demonstrators were its main enemies. However, today, things are different. The abettor with whom the junta committed crimes against Sudanese, the RSF, is the archenemy and danger. The organisation that used to be the part and parcel of the junta’s now referred to as a rebel group. Again, why’re the deuce baying for the blood of each other? Power, power, power, and power. After frustrating and manipulating the force for demonstrators, the two abettors are now accusing and calling each other names. Dagalo was recently quoted as saying "this criminal, he forced this battle upon us" (AP, April 15, 2023). Dagalo is referring to his boss Burhan as a criminal. Who's a criminal and who's. not? Nobody can tell even though the history of the two speaks volumes about them. While Dagalo called his boss a criminal, he responded by saying that everything was under control he didn't need any dialogue with the RSF.
A long story short, up until now, we don't know who'll finish whom, and what next. However, the look of things shows that Burhan may prevail temporarily all both go under. All in all, what's happening in Sudan’s the most dangerous it’s ever experienced is it an opportunity for the duo to finish each other and free Sudan from the criminal and dictatorial grip? How'll Bashir benefit or suffer more from this kerfuffle, it’s too early to tell. However, whatever happens, Sudan won't remain the same.
Source: Weekly Review Issue No. 36 today.
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