As this is
the first column
of this coming
year, I will
start by wishing
all our esteemed
readers, a happy
and prosperous new
year. The
year 2020 happens
to have certain
unique features of
being a leap
year, which
has a total
of 366 days, with that
extra day of 29th
February. But also,
in the case of Tanzania,
this will be the year of
our general
elections for the
President of the United
Republic, and the
President of Zanzibar;
the members of
the Union Parliament and of the
Zanzibar House of Representatives; plus
the Local Authority
Councillors.
There is,
of course, nothing
special, or unique,
about its being
a leap year,
except that a leap year
comes only after
every four years.
Nor is
there anything particularly
special, or unique,
about its being
an election year,
except that election
time is always unusually
hectic. And Indeed,
it is precisely
for that reason
that we have
selected this particular
topic for discussion
in today’s article. Because
we need to
remind our esteemed
readers, lest they
forget, (a) that
this is Tanzania’s general
elections year, which
will be the 12th
general election since
Tanzania Mainland’s independence
in 1961, and
the 6th since
the reintroduction of
multi-party politics in
1992; and (b) to alert them to be
prepared for the inevitable hectic
activities that are
normally associated with election
time. All these matters
are briefly outlined in
the paragraphs which
follow below.
Recent
election lessons from
other jurisdictions.
In almost
all cases, and
in practically all
countries, election time
is always hectic,
that is to
say, full of
activity and excitement
involving election campaigns
and other election-related activities.
But a
key factor in all
election processes, is
the unavoidable tension
which it inevitably
imposes on the
aspiring candidates, and
their avid supporters. In
this connection, we can learn some useful
lessons from the elections
which were recently
held in Namibia,
and Great Britain;
which have clearly
demonstrated that
the level of
uncertainty and tension in general elections,
largely depends
on the circumstances
prevailing in the relevant
country at the
material time; and further
that such
circumstances are created
by the presence
of certain specified
major issues that
have raised widespread public concern.
In the
case of Namibia,
the level of
uncertainty that surrounded
their recent general
election (the sixth
since that country’s
independence in 1990),
was absolutely unprecedented. In their
case, two issues have been
reported to have
been involved. One
was a major
corruption scandal concerning
the allocation of
fishing quotas, which
erupted only two
weeks before the
poll, and involved
the arrest of
two cabinet ministers;
The other
was the controversy
surrounding the electronic
voting machines, whose
efficacy was being widely questioned,
thus causing a
damaging erosion of
trust in the
state apparatus. In
addition, it is also reported
that there were
some other issues
which also fuelled
considerable public discontent.
These included “the
staggering unemployment rates,
particularly among young
people; a persistent
economic crisis and
gross social inequality;
plus the conflict-ridden, unresolved,
land question”.
These negative
factors gave
the ruling party,
SWAPO, a massive
loss in terms
of percentage points,
particularly for their
Presidential candidate who
was seeking re-election
for a second
and final term,
Hage Geingob, from
87 percent which he garnered
in the previous
election, this time
scrapping through with
only 56.3 percent.
It is further
reported that “
voters participation also fell,
from over 70
percent in 2014,
to 60 percent
of the registered
voters”. It would thus appear that
SWAPO’s seemingly unassailable
position has been
shattered. There is, obviously,
an important lesson
to be learnt
here, to which
we will return
a little later. In the case
of Great Britain,
there was the
paradox of just why there
were so many
traditional Labour party
voters who willingly
crossed the political
divide, and voted
for the Conservatives. As we
shall see later, here
is yet another
important lesson also
to learnt.
In that case,
two major issues
are also reported
to have influenced this
unexpected turn of
events. One was the Conservatives’
slogan of “get Brexit
done” by taking
Britain out of
the European Union
by the end
of January, 2020;
and the other
was “a big
disconnect between the
Labour party and a
big chunk of
its base”.
The bright side
of the recent
British poll results
is that, in
view of his
massive electoral victory,
the Conservative British
Prime Minister, Boris
Johnson , has been
empowered to break
the dreadful legislative
deadlock that had arisen
with regard to that
issue, in the
sense that he
has been enabled
to wield power
in a manner
that his recent
predecessor s could only
have dreamed of! Consequently,
in welcoming his
ministers to no 10 Downing
street’ the jubilant
Prime Minister Boris
Johnson declared: “We
shall have absolutely
no embarrassment in
saying that we are a
peoples’ Government, and
this is a
peoples’ cabinet”.
The
Labour party’s apparent
troubles.
Immediately after
the results of
the poll were
announced, a don
at the British
University of Sheffield’s
‘Sir Bernard Crick Center
for Public Understanding
of Politics’ commented
as follows: “The
people have spoken
clearly, that they
want to ‘get Brexit
done’. But the
results also suggest
the existence of
a major disconnect
between the UK’s
major opposition Labour
party, and a
big chunk of its base”.
He continued as
follows: “The ‘Boris bounce’ that
has just occurred,
was not fuelled
by positive hope and optimism,
but rather, by
fatigue and frustration,
with a political system
that appeared unable,
or unwilling, to
cope with the
burdens of Brexit
. . .
A deeper explanation for
the Labour party’s
poor performance, could
be that it
results from a
failure to understand
exactly how traditional
working classes feel”,
and thereafter proceeds
to quote the
words of the
MP for Barnsley East in northern
England, who said
that “many working
class communities feel
ignored, forgotten and
abandoned”.
The political lessons
to be learnt
therefrom.
We have
stated above, that
there are certain
important lessons to be learnt
from the election
results in the
examples discussed . In
my humble opinion,
the most crucial,
vital lesson, is
that they help
to provide a reliable answer
to the question
of “what are
the factors that
influence people to
vote the way
they do? These
examples show, that
the ISSUES that
generate public misgivings,
or concern, have
a major contribution
in influencing voters
regarding which of
the competing political
parties they will vote
for; and further
that prevailing
assumptions of LOYALTY
to the party
are, in fact,
actually untenable. And,
specifically, that the
issues listed in
the said examples,
are what influenced
voters to vote
negatively against the
ruling party (in
the case of
Namibia), and to
vote negatively against
the main opposition
Labour party (in the
British case), where,
in both cases,
large numbers of
party members just abandoned their
presumed loyalty to
their parties, obviously
in protest.
In our
own case, this kind
of protest has
also happened, at
least twice, in the 2010
and 2015 general
elections; when
large numbers of
CCM voters unexpectedly
abandoned loyalty to
their party, by
either voting for
opposition candidates, or
just abstaining from
participating in the
voting exercise. Also,
like in Namibia,
voter participation in
the 2010 general
election went down
drastically, to a
disappointing 42 percent of
the registered voters.
All these were voters’ reactions to allegations of
serious corruption
scandals, that were attributed
to certain Government
leaders, as well as to the ruling
party itself. But,
indeed fortunately, and
thanks to President
Magufuli, the present
situation is totally
different from that
of those yesteryears.
The
victory assurance provided
by President Magufuli’s
performance.
All
indications appear to
support the view,
that President John Magufuli’s
sterling performance over
the past four
years of his
stewardship of the
affairs of our
great country, particularly
in the
delivery of social,
as well economic
infrastructures, and a
host of other
community goods and
services; has practically
eliminated any public
misgivings or concerns.
Furthermore, neither he, nor any
member of his
cabinet, has been
accused of any
involvement in any
scandals, or of
any breach of
leadership ethics. It would
thus appear, barring
the occurrence of any unexpected
last minute disaster,
that victory for
President Magufuli and
for a large
majority of CCM
electoral candidates, stands
completely assured in
this year’s general
elections. May the
Lord
God grant us
peace, Amen.
The need
to appreciate the crucial
role of the
0pposition camp.
Multi-party democracy
is actually premised
on the presumption
that regularly, at
certain agreed intervals
(in our case,
after every five
years), the people (the
registered voters), will be
given the opportunity,
through properly organized
and fair electoral
competition, to decide
which of the
country’s political parties
will be given
the mandate to
form the government
of the day.
At the same
time, there will
be the Official Opposition
camp inside Parliament,
to be formed by
the political party
that lost the
election, but obtained
the requisite number
of MPs to
enable them to
form the Official
opposition. Thus, failure
to win the
forthcoming election should
not, in any
way, obliterate, or obscure, the
basic fact that
the gallant losers will
still have a
crucial, respectable task
to perform inside
Parliament.
In the
‘parliamentary system of
government’ which we are operating
in Tanzania (like in
many other countries),
those members
of Parliament who
sit on the
opposition benches, have
a very significant
and vital
role to play
in the political
management of the
country’s affairs; which is
to monitor, and
exercise constitutional control,
over the actions an
performance of the
government of the
day. Fortunately, our
main opposition party,
CHADEMA, and its
coalition allies, are
fully aware of
this aspect of
the parliamentary system
of government, and therefore
, like
their British counterparts
the main opposition
Labour party, they should just continue
to prepare themselves
for carrying out
this noble opposition
task, which they
have already been
doing for quite
a long time
now, and must
have acquired adequate
experience, plus the
relevant management skills,
that will enable
them to perform
even better this
time; while they
patiently wait for
the proverbial “next
time”, which may
be remotely possible
only after the invincible
President Magufuli has completed
his second term; or
in the most
unlikely event of
the seemingly unassailable
Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) being
shattered, at an
unforeseeable, distant future
general election.
In other
words, they should
just forget their
obviously unachievable ambition of
“removing CCM from
power” which, strangely
enough, appears to
occupy their minds,
thus deliberately ignoring
the proverbial “truth,
the whole truth,
and nothing but
the truth”, that
this cannot possibly
happen this year.
Finally,
Happy new year
one more time
to all our
esteemed readers of
this column. God willing, we
will keep ‘soldiering
on’ by providing
new weekly material
for the
next fifty–two weeks, of
this unique combination
of a leap
year and a general elections
year, namely the
year of our
Lord, 2020.
piomsekwa@gmail.com/0754767576.
Source: Daily News Today and Cde Msekwa Himself.
No comments:
Post a Comment