The Chant of Savant

Tuesday 18 October 2022

Why Vladimir Putin’s end is nigh

             
   


      By Makau Mutua Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.





President Vladimir Putin of Russia may be physically diminutive by Slavic standards, but his political ambitions are gargantuan would say there’s no daylight between him and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. Narcissists to the core, both men are perfect facsimiles of one another.
They are Napoleonic in ego and braggadocio. None has the moral authority to rule over even an insect, yet both superintend nuclear power states.
        One, the resident of the Kremlin, can destroy the earth several times in minutes. And yet, it’s their outsize machismo that will be their undoing. Methinks the Moscow citizen will go first before his Pyongyang counterpart.
A certain date with cruel destiny – sooner than later – awaits. Let’s dig deeper. 
        Russians sit on a bed of rich literary and artistic culture. Theirs is one of the globe’s most remarkable civilisations. They’ve built and collapsed empires. They’ve raised great armies and weaponry. They are technological pioneers. They built one of two great superpowers of the 20th century. The other, more dominant, was the United States.
        The ideological bankruptcy of the Soviet Union, an empire, and the economic and military might of America, finally did in the Soviet Union. International capitalism and democratic values sucked the Soviet Union dry, leaving an empty husk, a dead carcass.
The fake Marxist socialism and state dominance of the economy put the Soviet Union asunder. But something more resilient – culture – was at work.
Culture
All cultures – political, social, literary, social, and economic – have a genetic fingerprint. While I don’t essentialise culture, I believe you can identify it when you see it.
Culture is like pornography. You know it when you see it. Culture even has sounds and smells. Of course, it’s dynamic and mutates, or even completely transforms.
        But you know the culture you are seeing – and smelling – when you come face to face, or nose to nose, with it. What’s my point? Slavic cultures in general have tended to be authoritarian and state-centred.
They have a certain inflexibility and lack a general gene of tolerance. They lie on a crucible of raw power, uber-masculinity, and heteropatriarchy. I don’t know why.
        To be sure, Slavic cultures are not the only ones that suffer these deficits. All cultures do, but my study of history shows that these drawbacks are more pronounced there. Mr Putin is a product of that ecosystem. Historically, Russian rulers haven’t been gentle. Mr Putin has been true to form.
Recreate Sovet Union
A KGB agent to the bone – the embodiment of imperial hegemony – Mr Putin’s singular purpose in life has been to recreate the dominant Soviet Union. His preoccupation has been to give Russia a longer phallus so that it can piss further than any other global power, especially the United States.
His idea of political dominance is testosterone-driven. That’s why he took Crimea. Because he could. That’s “manhood”.
        It was this pigheadedness that drove the spy to invade Ukraine. But if Mr Putin is the master of psychological warfare, then he’s no Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess grandmaster. The chess genius only made moves when he was certain of a victorious outcome. No hollow chest-thumping, or false bravado.
        You can gamble, but make sure the odds of a win are virtually assured. Don’t play Russian roulette. Unfortunately, Mr Putin has committed all these cardinal sins of warfare.
He mistakenly thought Ukraine was Crimea. For the record, Ukraine was the second most powerful republic after Russia in the Soviet Union.  The resilience of its people and fighting forces are a marvel to behold. It’s truly astonishing.
        With boundless morale and superior Western, especially American, intelligence and technology, the Ukrainians have made minced meat of the large and lethargic Russian forces.
Many Russians have simply abandoned post and fled in cowardice, tail between the legs.
        They have taken heavy casualties. The war is to Russia what Vietnam was to America. The Russian military has been exposed as lazy, fat, and even dumb. Their fighting skills are near zero. In my view, the Russian military is near collapse. Clearly, Mr Putin doesn’t know whether he’s coming or going.
        Nato has outfoxed him. American and European sanctions have decimated the Russian economy. Mr Putin is now a deer caught in the headlights. Does he know when “to fold them?” The greatest threat to Mr Putin’s stranglehold on power isn’t external. It’s right there in the Kremlin. Billionaire Russians don’t enjoy Russia. They love frolicking in the West and sending their kids to school there. Now their yachts can’t leave Russian waters. The military is humiliated.
        And for what? It’s the business elite and the military that will end Mr Putin’s reign. He can’t – and won’t – survive Ukraine.ed his misadventures so long as he didn’t destroy the economy, vanquish his own military, and upset the elite. The GDP of New York was always bigger than Russia’s, and it’s even larger today. Mr Putin’s end is nigh. He will go by whatever means necessary.
Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor at Buffalo Law School, The State University of New York. @makaumutua.
Source: Sunday Nation, Oct., 17, 2022.

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