Today, 5th November, 2020; is that magnificent day when President- elect John Pombe Magufuli will take his oath of office, in the country’s new capital city of Dodoma. This Constitutional ceremony represents the official commencement of his second and final term, as President of the United Republic of Tanzania. The 2020 general election was, in many respects, indeed a historic election; firstly because this election has drastically changed the country’s political landscape, lawfully and peacefully, through the ballot box. Secondly, it has given President Magufuli an unprecedented, huge mandate for his second and final term in office, when he obtained 12,516,252 votes out of 14,830,195 valid votes, which is equivalent to 84.40%.
Thirdly, it has also completely wiped the ‘official Opposition’ out of Parliament, when it gave the ruling party ( CCM ) a landslide victory in 256 out of 264 constituencies; thus disqualifying that tiny minority of Opposition MPs from forming the “Official Opposition camp” inside Parliament. This is due to the fact that the Parliamentary rules of procedure, require a specified minimum number of Opposition MPs, in order for them to allowed to form what is known as the “Official Opposition” inside Parliament. The eight Opposition MPs who made it , are far below that required minimum number. And, practically the same picture also emerged in respect of the Local Authority elections.
However, on further reflection, it can be reasonably asserted that these results were actually inevitable, and were widely expected. This confident expectation is firmly based on President Magufuli’s exemplary performance and delivery, during his first term; on which he proudly based his powerful campaign strategy of listing “What we have done and achieved”, as opposed to the Opposition candidates’ unreliable promises of “what we will do” if given a chance. Such promises are basically speculative. Thus, this ‘tempest –type’ victory by CCM, did not come as a surprise at all. Except, perhaps, for those proverbial characters “ who have neither eyes to see, nor ears to hear”; this level of CCM’s victory was widely anticipated and expected. Food for thought: The future of multi-party politics in Tanzania.
These election results will presumably generate some heated public debate, regarding the future prospects of multiparty politics in Tanzania. This presentation is designed to be my little contribution to that debate.
For the purpose of exposing what has been the progressive CCM’s election victory dominance over all the opposition parties combined, I will start by revisiting the results of the past multi-party elections. They were as follows:-
In 1995 (the first multi-party general election): (i)Presidential elections : 61.8% victory (ii) Parliamentary elections : 80.17% victory.
In 2000 : (i) Presidential election : 71.7% victory; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 87.5%
2005 (i) Presidential election : 80.28% victory; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 88.79% victory.
In 2010 (i) Presidential election : 62.84%; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 79.1%
The expressed concerns regarding this political situation.
In his address to inaugurate Parliament, following the second multi-party general election of the year 2000, CCM President Benjamin Mkapa made the following pertinent comments: “Mr. Speaker, there are two issues that cause me some measure of distress. The first relates to the weakness of the Opposition political parties. If we do not have serious political competition between comparable teams, we will slowly degenerate into political frivolity. As President of the country, I realize that a strong opposition is necessary to keep CCM on its toes, which, in turn, is good for our people, and good for our country”.
In similar vein, after the third multi-party general election of the year 2005, CCM President Jakaya Kikwete, said the following at a new year presidential sherry party that he had hosted for the foreign diplomats accredited to Tanzania:- “The poor performance of opposition parties during the 2005 general election, has raised concern as to whether Tanzania was reverting to a one-party state. All those who have such concerns should rest assured that my Government will continue to uphold multi-party democracy by maintaining a level-playing field, and enhancing inter-party dialogue, consultation and cooperation”.
Tanzania’s inherent political culture.
Having closely observed the voting patterns in all general elections during both the ‘single-party’ and the ‘ multi-party’ periods; the following appears to be the dominant characteristics in the voting behaviour of Tanzanians, namely : the striking consistency in rejecting unwanted candidates when the objective situation so demands, irrespective of that candidate’s party affiliation. This happened first in the pre-independence multi-party general election of 1960 in Tanganyika, when only one CCM parliamentary candidate Chief Amri Dodo, was rejected in favour of an independent candidate, whereas all the remaining 70 CCM candidates in were elected.
In 2000 : (i) Presidential election : 71.7% victory; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 87.5%
2005 (i) Presidential election : 80.28% victory; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 88.79% victory.
In 2010 (i) Presidential election : 62.84%; (ii) Parliamentary elections : 79.1%
The expressed concerns regarding this political situation.
In his address to inaugurate Parliament, following the second multi-party general election of the year 2000, CCM President Benjamin Mkapa made the following pertinent comments: “Mr. Speaker, there are two issues that cause me some measure of distress. The first relates to the weakness of the Opposition political parties. If we do not have serious political competition between comparable teams, we will slowly degenerate into political frivolity. As President of the country, I realize that a strong opposition is necessary to keep CCM on its toes, which, in turn, is good for our people, and good for our country”.
In similar vein, after the third multi-party general election of the year 2005, CCM President Jakaya Kikwete, said the following at a new year presidential sherry party that he had hosted for the foreign diplomats accredited to Tanzania:- “The poor performance of opposition parties during the 2005 general election, has raised concern as to whether Tanzania was reverting to a one-party state. All those who have such concerns should rest assured that my Government will continue to uphold multi-party democracy by maintaining a level-playing field, and enhancing inter-party dialogue, consultation and cooperation”.
Tanzania’s inherent political culture.
Having closely observed the voting patterns in all general elections during both the ‘single-party’ and the ‘ multi-party’ periods; the following appears to be the dominant characteristics in the voting behaviour of Tanzanians, namely : the striking consistency in rejecting unwanted candidates when the objective situation so demands, irrespective of that candidate’s party affiliation. This happened first in the pre-independence multi-party general election of 1960 in Tanganyika, when only one CCM parliamentary candidate Chief Amri Dodo, was rejected in favour of an independent candidate, whereas all the remaining 70 CCM candidates in were elected.
This scenario was repeated in the 2020 general election in Tanzania Mainland, when only two CCM candidates, Hawa Ghasia and Ally Kessi, were rejected, in favour of Opposition party candidates, whereas all the other 212 CCM parliamentary candidates were elected.
In my humble opinion, such a repetition of similar political events, in such widely separate time periods, and involving such a wide generation gap; should itself be a valuable lesson to be taken on board for a proper and detailed analysis.
My considered submission is that In one respect, it helps to reveal the true nature of the basic political culture of Tanzanian society; namely that despite the widening generation gap, there is an inherent , stable political culture, which every Tanzanian generation appears to be willing to maintain; and that culture appears to be “a sincere and absolute devotion to the political party that was established by the funder fathers of our nation”. But still, the voters will not hesitate to reject any unwanted CCM candidate.
In support of this assertion, there is sufficient evidence to show that even when CCM was at its most dangerous point of losing a general election, as was the case both in the 2010 and 2015 general elections, when many of the party leaders at the Parliamentary level lost their seats; but the party was still saved from losing the election, obviously by its loyal members and supporters of that particular generation, who had the wisdom of separating the offending individual leaders from the party itself; and took action to punish those renegade leaders individually by denying them their valuable votes. But they did not abandon the party itself, which they still gave sufficient votes that enabled it to remain in power.
The necessary conditions for a successful multi-party general election.
There are certain necessary conditions that form the basis upon which a successful general election is based. They are the following:- (i) the full and serious participation of political parties. Such participation is necessary because competing political parties are absolutely essential for the success of electoral democracy, especially in our situation where private candidates are excluded. (ii) Such competition only becomes healthy and really meaningful when it is carried out between political parties of comparable strength, competing on an even playing field, and governed by fair rules of the game, that are also managed and administered fairly, thus providing an equal opportunity to all the participating parties. (iii) A vibrant Parliament, whose proceedings are governed by fair rules which provide equal opportunities for the Government to carry out their responsibilities without undue obstructions; and for the Opposition to also play their proper Constitutional role, from the Opposition benches; while preparing for the next general election.
The objective situation in Tanzania,
Writing towards the end of the first five years of practicing multi-party politics in Tanzania; Max Mmuya, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, lamented as follows in a publication titled “Political Reform in Eclipse” :- “After almost five years of actively spearheading the process of political reform in Tanzania, the new political parties have now been ridden with such internal cleavages and inter-party conflicts, that have reduced them to mere formal Organizations”.
The necessary conditions for a successful multi-party general election.
There are certain necessary conditions that form the basis upon which a successful general election is based. They are the following:- (i) the full and serious participation of political parties. Such participation is necessary because competing political parties are absolutely essential for the success of electoral democracy, especially in our situation where private candidates are excluded. (ii) Such competition only becomes healthy and really meaningful when it is carried out between political parties of comparable strength, competing on an even playing field, and governed by fair rules of the game, that are also managed and administered fairly, thus providing an equal opportunity to all the participating parties. (iii) A vibrant Parliament, whose proceedings are governed by fair rules which provide equal opportunities for the Government to carry out their responsibilities without undue obstructions; and for the Opposition to also play their proper Constitutional role, from the Opposition benches; while preparing for the next general election.
The objective situation in Tanzania,
Writing towards the end of the first five years of practicing multi-party politics in Tanzania; Max Mmuya, a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, lamented as follows in a publication titled “Political Reform in Eclipse” :- “After almost five years of actively spearheading the process of political reform in Tanzania, the new political parties have now been ridden with such internal cleavages and inter-party conflicts, that have reduced them to mere formal Organizations”.
Mmuya further commented that “since 1991 when new political reform groups emerged, these new parties traversed a steady path whereby they increasingly won the hearts of supporters, and secured a fair amount of public acceptance. But after the first multi-party general election of 1995, the path that was moving forwards on the horizontal mobilization plane, as well as upwards on the vertical legitimacy plane, began to slide downwards and backwards. These new political parties’ constituencies began to lose confidence in the said parties’ leadership in the light of continuous internal conflicts; and their goals seemed to be no longer inspiring. But above all, they failed to make use of Parliament as a platform for furthering the reform process”.
In fact, those of us who were in leadership positions in Parliament at that time, can confirm the authenticity of Mmuya’s observations; and even add that this situation did not change significantly during the subsequent years, as evidenced by their continued dismal electoral performance, and ridiculous theatrical shows in Parliament.
The prospects of Opposition parties’ forming a viable Alliance.
Following upon Kenya’s Opposition political parties’ success in forming their “National Rainbow Coalition” (NARC), which led to their victory in the 2002 general election in Kenya, some Opposition politicians in Tanzania started considering the possibility of forming a similar coalition, with the desired objective of “removing CCM from power”.
But such forlorn hopes failed to materialize , for the simple reason that there were certain material differences between the political situation in Kenya, and that of Tanzania, specifically in relation to the parliamentary strength between the ruling KANU party in Kenya, and that of the Opposition parties combined, which was a tiny majority of only 4 members! Hence, it was much easier for the Opposition in Kenya to defeat the ruling party by removing that small difference. Whereas in Tanzania, the situation was vastly different. In the 1995 general election, CCM had won 186 constituency seats, compared to only 46 seats which were won by all the Opposition parties combined. And in the 2000 general election, CCM had won an even increased majority of 202 constituency seats, compared to the combined Opposition parties’ total of only 29 such seats.
The idea of forming Opposition alliances may appear plausible; but, in practical terms, it is not always easy to execute. For example, there is this interesting example from India.
India’s general election of 1996, failed to produce a party which had a sufficient majority to enable it to form the Government. It thus became necessary to form alliances for that purpose.
The alliance which was initially formed could only produce what is known as a ‘minority Government’ , as the other Opposition parties refused to join. As a result, this coalition lasted for only 13 days, and had to resign for fear of being thrown out of office through a motion of ‘no confidence’, in the Parliament which was due to assemble soon for its first meeting after the general election. A political pundit described this failure to form an Opposition alliance humorously as follows:- “It was like a cemetery: those who were inside could not come out, and those who were outside did not want to get in”. However, in view of our electoral history, the future fortunes of our Opposition parties, will seemingly depend entirely on the voters’ preferences. piomsekwa@gmail.com /0754767576.
In fact, those of us who were in leadership positions in Parliament at that time, can confirm the authenticity of Mmuya’s observations; and even add that this situation did not change significantly during the subsequent years, as evidenced by their continued dismal electoral performance, and ridiculous theatrical shows in Parliament.
The prospects of Opposition parties’ forming a viable Alliance.
Following upon Kenya’s Opposition political parties’ success in forming their “National Rainbow Coalition” (NARC), which led to their victory in the 2002 general election in Kenya, some Opposition politicians in Tanzania started considering the possibility of forming a similar coalition, with the desired objective of “removing CCM from power”.
But such forlorn hopes failed to materialize , for the simple reason that there were certain material differences between the political situation in Kenya, and that of Tanzania, specifically in relation to the parliamentary strength between the ruling KANU party in Kenya, and that of the Opposition parties combined, which was a tiny majority of only 4 members! Hence, it was much easier for the Opposition in Kenya to defeat the ruling party by removing that small difference. Whereas in Tanzania, the situation was vastly different. In the 1995 general election, CCM had won 186 constituency seats, compared to only 46 seats which were won by all the Opposition parties combined. And in the 2000 general election, CCM had won an even increased majority of 202 constituency seats, compared to the combined Opposition parties’ total of only 29 such seats.
The idea of forming Opposition alliances may appear plausible; but, in practical terms, it is not always easy to execute. For example, there is this interesting example from India.
India’s general election of 1996, failed to produce a party which had a sufficient majority to enable it to form the Government. It thus became necessary to form alliances for that purpose.
The alliance which was initially formed could only produce what is known as a ‘minority Government’ , as the other Opposition parties refused to join. As a result, this coalition lasted for only 13 days, and had to resign for fear of being thrown out of office through a motion of ‘no confidence’, in the Parliament which was due to assemble soon for its first meeting after the general election. A political pundit described this failure to form an Opposition alliance humorously as follows:- “It was like a cemetery: those who were inside could not come out, and those who were outside did not want to get in”. However, in view of our electoral history, the future fortunes of our Opposition parties, will seemingly depend entirely on the voters’ preferences. piomsekwa@gmail.com /0754767576.
Source: Daily News and Cde Msekwa.
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