Has the AU now blessed coup d’états in Africa?

The year was 1997, in Harare Zimbabwe–––this was the time the then Organisation of African Unity (OAU), thereafter the African Unity (AU), on its 33^rd summit–––passed the resolution of banning coup d’états in Africa. The host of the summit, the then Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe, was quoted as saying “wwe are getting tougher and tougher on coups. Coup-plotters and those who overthrow democratic governments will find it more difficult to get recognition from us. Democracy is getting stronger in Africa and we now have a definite attitude against coups.” Ironically, Mugabe was toppled 20 years thereafter and the AU didn’t live up to its promise. Is the situation still the same as was after the AU succeeded to thwart the coup in Sierra Leone soon after it issued this statement?

            Considering a stern stance by the AU on coups in Africa, what transpired recently in Mali pokes holes on this stance. After suffering from long-time wrangles, brutalities, massacres by terrorist groups and hoo-ha over power among politicians, the world on Tuesday 18^thAugust, 2020 woke up to the news that the army had arrested Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, his Prime Minister Boubou Cissé and other top dogs in the upper echelons of power. This is the fourth coup on the row that Africa’s recently evidenced after the militaries in Egypt, Algeria and Sudan respectively. Like the coups in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and Zimbabwe, Mali’s coup came on the milieu of carps as citizens wanted their president out of office. Thereafter, the military and the civilians agreed to share the spoils. Will this be replicated in Mali as was the case in Zimbabwe where the army toppled the governments that faced fierce demonstrations.  Many still wonder. Why, in Sudan (the revolutionists) and Zimbabwe (the ruling party, the ZANU-PF) did the duo enter a shotgun marriage to end up messing even more? Did they bow before the pressure exerted from within and outside; or just because one of the duos, the military juntas, agreed for the sake of argument in order to devise more methods of usurping power provided that they’d guns under their disposal? Will the demonstrators seek the share of the cake in Mali just was in Sudan? Wil the AU sanction such criminality, which is like to motivate other putsches to power?

First of all, before delving into what seem to be in the store for Mali and the resurgence of coup d’états in Africa, we need to ask ourselves if this is what demonstrators and Malians in general expected or wanted when they took to the streets. Whatever the answer[s] one gets will tell us if the military and opposition decided to share the spoils. I once warned that the revolution in Sudan was likely to go haywire and be grabbed as it transpired in the neighbouring Egypt wherein the army robbed the civilians the victory just a year after the mass agitated against and thereof overthrew Hosni Mubarak whose elements, like in Mali, stepped in and deposed a democratically elected president, the late Mohamed Morsi whom the army killed thereafter. The difference however is that in Egypt, the status quo waited for a year.

The causes of revolution in Egypt, Algeria, Sudan and recently Mali are the same in nature, reeking endemic and systemic corruption and failures for many regimes to deliver not to mention long-time economic adversities many African countries are now facing.

Another reason is that dictatorships and bad governance, normally don’t deliver or create conducive environment for democracy, development and peace as has recently been the case in Mali. That’s because of systemic impunity, regimes enjoy holier than thou to end up creating the seeds of destruction within themselves for their own destruction. Naturally, dictatorships fall however long they try to cling unto power. That’s because of creating many enemies inside and outside of it. What’s in the cooking currently in Sudan speaks volume shall the junta grab power in Mali. We recently evidenced a smoldering conflict in Sudan where the majority still view their revolution as incomplete after the junta robbed it.

Geared by greed for power and nearsightedness, the junta in Sudan seems hellbent to cling unto power. Though, as argued above, this can be pointlessly replicated in Mali for the peril of the two countries. After toppling Keita, the opposition, demonstrator and Iman Mohamoud Dicko seem to be contented with the move they’ll soon regret.  The key question one can ask is: Will juntas survive and stay in power; and if they do, for how long? Will the current carbuncular religo-civimilitary regime adequately address and solve the problems that geared them to take power by handing power to civilian transitional governments that will prepare them for democratic elections? Will the powers that be behind the curtains snatch this opportunity to exploit Mali vis-à-vis foreign powers that are currently operating in Mali under the decoy and ploy of combating terrorism?

            When it comes to the AU, has it surrendered to the putsches? What precedent does that set for other ticking bombs under dictators? What’d we expect? For, apart from condemning the move, after the junta took power in Mali, the AU hasn’t yet convened an ad hoc meeting to look into the matter nippily and timely. Will the international community stay aside and look as if what’s ongoing isn’t one of its duty-bound responsibilities? Where are the powers of the world? Again, who cares about Africa and African things? Will the AU see the light and make a U-turn by coercing the juntas to leave the business of politics to politicians? Is it possible after the Malian strong man Assimi Goita has already imbedded himself in power? Will military or diplomatic solution work in Mali? Will the army manipulate the demonstrators as was the cases in Egypt, Sudan and Zimbabwe? Will the Malians–––who seem to stoop towards the junta–––buy into this chicanery wherein the conflict seems to have been postponed? Yes, the conflict’s been postponed either because of the fear or wooziness of the parties to it. In conflict resolution, we understand that wherever there’s conflict, what we see is but the tip of the iceberg; a small lot of a problem. This is why my understanding is that what transpired in the above-mentioned countries and now in Mali is but the beginning of the beginning of a big problem yet to come. That is because the process of making the government under the military is naturally flawed. As well, Africa still face the same problems and has some dictators causing the same problems. The protagonists may hope that things will normalize naturally. How, while those with guns have an upper hand in everything?   

Further, the military juntas have no knowhow of economic and political matters. Thus, having such immense power alone or by being a part of the ruling configuration will make matters worse than they’re so as to force the people back to the drawing board. The duty of the military is the security of the country but politics. You can take this to the bank. If the juntas think that they’ll have their cake and eat it–––expecting to have a very smooth ride just like has been the case in Egypt–––let them be told that the two cases are completely different.  In Egypt, superpowers from the west have their interests to maintain and safeguard, particularly if we consider the centrality of the Middle East with its oil-rich nations not to mention Israel which has always been the project of the west as it created it in 1948. Thanks to regional geopolitics, Malian junta will never make it due to the fact that Mali is Africa. The aid that’s maintaining dictatorship in Egypt will never be forthcoming shall Malians stand again against it. So, too, what created the problems the military’s used as a ruse to seize power will never enable it to get away with murder without necessarily addressing central issues such as mega graft, tanking economy, unemployment and hardship. More importantly, the force behind Mali coup’s nothing new but the kamikaze youth who have nothing to lose except their chains. And such desperate people can support whoever comes to them with sweet words. That’s why an Iman Dicko took a lead in the demonstrations that weakened the deposed government.

In sum, now that everything’s on the agora as far as the resurgence of coup d’états in Africa is concerned, what’ll the AU do to nippily discontinue this delinquency? As argued above, will the junta in Mali have its cake and eat it as has been the case in Egypt or keep the country on tenterhooks as is the case now in Sudan? Whatever choice embarked on, is perilous for Mali and junta.

Source: African Executive Magazine today.