TOWARDS THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTIONS.

Today’s article   is a continuation of the series  of  articles  on  the  general  subject  of  elections;   which  are  intended  to  cover  the  various   aspects  of  the  multiple  issues  relating  to  the  subject  of  elections,  this  being  our  general  election  year.   In  the  last  article,  we  ended  with  the  point  that  “multi-party  democracy  requires  a  strong  opposition”,  by  quoting  the  words  of  former  President   Benjamin  Mkapa,  when  he   said  that  “If  we  do  not  have  serious  political  competition  between  comparable  teams,  we  will  slowly  degenerate  into  political  frivolity”.            
In today’s article we will examine this particular aspect, namely, the   prospect   of having  “comparative  teams”  competing  in  this  year’s  general  election.

Some   lessons from our electoral history.

The possibility of having   two “comparative teams competing in the  election”   appeared,  for  the  first  time  in  the   history  of  Tanzania’s  multi-party  elections,   in  the  results  of    the  Presidential  election  of  2015   when,  out  of  a  grand  total  of  15,193,862  votes,    the  CCM  candidate,  Dr.  John Pombe Joseph Magufuli obtained   8,882,935 votes, equivalent to 58.46%;  while  the  CHADEMA  candidate,  Edward  Ngoyai  Lowassa,  obtained  6,072,848  votes,  equivalent  to  39.97%.    A total of eight political parties participated in that  election. 

However, the results in the Parliamentary election in 264 constituencies provided  a  very  different  picture,  in  the  sense  that  CCM  obtained  73.86  of  the  votes,  equivalent  to 195  Parliamentary  seats;  while  CHADEMA,  the  main  Opposition  party,  obtained  only 13.26%,  equivalent  to  35  seats.

The holding of   multi-party elections   in Tanzania commenced in 1995; in which four political parties participated in the  Presidential  election.  These   were:    CCM; CUF; NCCR-MAGEUZI; and UDP.  The CCM candidate scored 61.8%; followed by NCCR-MAGEUZI, which obtained 27.8%  The  remaining  two  parties  scored  as  follows:    UDP=  6.4% ,   UDP =4.0%. In subsequent Presidential elections thereafter; CCM kept gaining ground  as  follows:  In  the  2000  Presidential  election,  CCM  scored  71. 8%; and   in the 2005 Presidential election;  CCM  scored a  record  high  of  80.2%. 

And in the Parliamentary elections,  CCM  started  in  1995  with  a  handsome  harvest   of  80.2%  of  all  the  Parliamentary   seats.  But even in the seemingly  difficult  2015  general  elections,  CCM  still  obtained  195  constituency   seats  out  of  a  total  264  such  seats;  which  was  equivalent  to  73.86%.. 

What   do these facts reveal?

In my humble opinion, they  reveal  the   basic  fact  that   in  reality,   the  results  of   the  2015  Presidential  election  do  not  represent  the  normal  position  regarding  the  electoral  strength  of  the  Opposition  CHADEMA   party,  which  at  that  time  appeared  to  be  a  “comparable  team”  to  CCM.  

Based on   my own personal experience of  CCM,  I  can  submit  that CCM’s  dismal  performance.  in the 2015 Presidential election, was  facilitated  by  two    adverse  factors,  namely:    (i)  the  ‘self-inflicted  injuries’  that  CCM  had  unwittingly  inflicted  upon  itself  during  that  period;  and  (ii)  the  resulting  windfall  gains  that  flowed  out  of  CCM   into  CHADEMA”s  establishment.

The “self-inflicted injuries” were, primarily, the  lack  of  fairness  in  the selection  process  for  Parliamentary  candidates   by  the  CCM  National  Executive  Committee (NEC).   That organ was  (rightly)  accused  of  having  abandoned    the  principle  of  fairness  in  its  final   selection  process  at  that  level.  Their   wanton, undemocratic action, led to  many  electable  aspirants  to  defect  to  CHADEMA,  because  they  were  forced  to  find  a  new  base   from  which  they  could  proceed  to  achieve  their  valid  ambition  to  enter  Parliament.    Thus, because of their personal popularity  in  their  respective  constituencies;  they  succeeded,  and  got  elected  to  Parliament  on  the  CHADEMA  tickets. 

This is what gave CHADEMA the  windfall  gains, that  gave  it  the  numbers  required  for  it   to  form  the  official  Opposition  in  Parliament;  plus  being  awarded  the  title  of  “Chama  Kikuu  cha  Upinzani”.                                  

And indeed, this was not the first time that CCM  had  unjustly  rejected  electable  candidates  in  its  selection  process.  There are numerous past examples that can be cited to  prove  this  contention;  starting  with  that  of  Dr.  Wilbrod Slaa, a CCM  aspirant  who had  won  a  majority  of  the  CCM  preferential  votes  in  the  Karatu  constituency  during  the  first  multi-party  Parliamentary  elections  in  1995;  but  was  unfairly  denied  nomination.  He immediately defected to CHADEMA, and easily  won  that  election  in  the  said  constituency.  There have been many more such examples  of  unfairness  in  the  nomination  process  thereafter, as  revealed   by   the  complaints  voiced  by  the  affected  candidates.    

That is what must have prompted the current CCM Chairman, President  John  Pombe   Magufuli,  to  introduce  the  new,  transparent  procedures   of  broadcasting  live  the  entire  CCM   nomination  process  for  this  year’s  general  elections.   His new “style” of leadership has replaced the  previous  secretive  process,  which  provided  space  for  ‘gerrymandering’  in  the  nomination  process.     Kudos to Chairman Magufuli   for introducing   these welcome changes.

The influx   of   aspirants seeking CCM nomination.

We will now examine the unusual, unprecedented   spectacle of huge  numbers  of  aspirants  in  this  year’s  Parliamentary   elections  applying  to  be  considered  by  CCM  which,  in  last  week’s  article,  we  promised  to  investigate.                                                              

It was publicly stated by President Magufuli himself, that a  total  of 10, 321  aspirants  had  submitted  their  application  forms  for   all  the  constituencies  country  wide.   What could be the reasons for this  influx  (mafuriko)?

Many  of  the  aspirants  stated  publicly,   that  it  is  “their  love  for  CCM,  its  top  leadership,  and  his  sterling  performance  in  solving  the  country’s  problems  that  had  attracted  them,  with  the  aim  of  securing  this  leadership  position  which  would  enable  them  to  participate  directly  in  these  magnificent  endeavours  to  enhance  the  people’s  welfare  and wellbeing”.                                                                                         
Their declared  noble  intentions  are  most  probably  true,  and  may  indeed  be  the  main  reason  for  this  wave  of   defections  to  CCM;   which  therefore  shows  the  great  amount  of  confidence  and  satisfaction   that  many  people  have  in  President  Magufuli’s  leadership;  plus  the  additional  confidence  that  once  an  aspirant  is  selected  by  CCM,  his  success  at  the  polls  is  almost  assured. 

However beyond that, there must certainly be some   other (hidden)  personal  reasons  that  normally  attract  people  to  vie  for  Parliamentary  seats.   The main one is   the substantial perks associated with  the  membership  of  Parliament.   The other is the desire to seek a more  secure  employment,  which  is  offered  by  the membership  of  Parliament,  which  is  accompanied  by the  acquisition  of  an  enhanced  social  status  within  the  society  (Mheshimiwa).   This, presumably, is what explains why   some of   the Presidential  appointees,  who   fear  that  their   service   may  be  terminated  at  any  time  without  notice,  have   joined   the  race  in  the  Parliamentary  elections.  They are obviously motivated by the desire to  seek  greater  security  of  employment  as  members  of  Parliament,  whose  tenure  is  guaranteed  for  at  least  five  years.

The prospect of having ‘comparative teams.

 We are now heading towards the 2020 general elections  to  be  held  on  Wednesday,  28th  October,  2020.  So, what are the prospects for having ‘comparative teams’  competing  in  these  elections?

We have already seen that in the  2015  Parliamentary  elections,  the  winning  party  CCM  secured  195  seats;  with  CHADEMA  in  the  second  place ,  having  obtained  35  seats.    (CUF got into the third place with 32  seats;  while  ACT-WAZALENDO   and   NCCR-MAGEUZI,   secured  only  1 seat  each).

In the light of the significant changes and  realignments  which  have  taken  place  in  the  intervening  five  years;  it  would  be  fair  and  reasonable  for  the  public  to  expect  similar  changes  in  the  performance  of  the   respective  parties  in  this  year’s  general  election. 

For example, CHADEMA   has already lost its leading position in Parliament  and  status  of  being  ‘Chama  Kikuu  cha  Upinzani’;   after  so  many  of  its  MPs  defected  to  CCM  and  to  some  other  political  parties  during  this  period.    CUF has also lost many of its Parliamentarians, who  defected  to  other  political  parties;  whereas   ACT- Wazalendo,  and  NCCR-MAGEUZI,  have   gained  a  significant   measure  of  new  strength,  as  a  result  of receiving  many  defectors  from  other  Opposition  parties.  

Thus, there is no doubt that an entirely new political landscape  has  been  created,  largely  facilitated   by  two  distinct  factors.   One is   the multiplicity of defections described above; but the other   and  more  important  factor,   is  President  Magufuli’s  sterling  performance  in  managing  the  affairs  of  the  nation,  which  has  garnered  unprecedented  public  support,  not  only  for  him  personally,  but  also   for  his  political  party  CCM.        

In the circumstances of this new political landscape, it  becomes  extremely difficult  to  even  guess  what  results  the  forthcoming  general  election  will  produce,  particularly  in  respect  of  the  Opposition  parties.                                          

 But,  even  in  the  most  unlikely  event  of   these  permutations  and  combinations   producing    a  “team  of  comparative  strength”   to  compete  with  CCM  in  this  year’s  general  elections;  yet,  because  of  the  powerful   ‘Magufuli  factor’  mentioned  above,  the  Ruling  party  is  firmly  guaranteed  to  win  these  elections  quite  comfortably  at  all  levels.   

The  above  mentioned  ‘Magufuli  factor’,  reminds  me  of  the  old  Madisonian  view,  that  is  to  be  found  in  American  Political  Science  literature,  which  is  expressed  in  the  following  terms:-  “The  aim  of  every  political  system  is,  or  ought  to  be,   first,  to  obtain  as  rulers  men  who  possess  most  wisdom  to  discern,  and  most  virtue  to  pursue,  the  common  good  of  society;  and  in  the  next  place,  to  take  the  most  effectual  precautions  for  keeping  them  virtuous  while  they  continue  to  hold  the  public  trust”.  

In that connection, I humbly submit that CCM can  be   justifiably  credited  for  having  found  John  Pombe  Magufuli  as  Tanzania’s  Ruler,  for  he  appears  “to  possess  most  wisdom  to  discern,  and  most  virtue  to  pursue,  the  common  good  for  Tanzania’s  society”.  And that is precisely what creates the  confidence   that  CCM  is  guaranteed  to  win  the  this  year’s  general  elections.

Hence, the prospect of having a  “comparable  team”   to  compete  with  CCM  in  these  general  elections  is,  clearly,  still  far  beyond  the  horizon.  All that can reasonably   be expected, is only the  probability   of  having  a  different  official  opposition  party,  other  than  CHADEMA,  inside  Parliament.                                         

 And regarding this point, I should emphasize that   it is  of  vital  importance   for  the  Opposition  parties,  to  appreciate  the   Official  Opposition’s  positive  role,  as  well  as   its   vital  contribution,  in  the  successful  operations  of  the  multi-party  Parliament. We will return to this important point in  next   week’s   article     

Many voters will vote for Magufuli.

We have referred above to the lessons  that  should  be  learnt  from  the  country’s  past  electoral  history.  One  such   important  lesson  is  in  respect  of  the voting  pattern,  which   strongly  indicates  that  despite  the  general  call  to  the  voters  to  “vote  for  the  party  with  the  best  policies”,   our  voting  history   shows   a  totally  different  picture;  namely  that  voters  in  Tanzania  are  more inclined   to  vote  for the  individual  person,  and  not  for  the  political  party.

This  is  evidenced  by  several  examples,  such  as  that  of  the  2015  defectors,    who  decamped  at  the  last  moment  from  CCM  to  CHADEMA,   and  easily  got  elected  to  Parliament  on  the  CHADEMA  tickets;  plus  that  of   Presidential  candidate  Edward  Lowassa,   whose  last  minute  arrival  in  CHADEMA    suddenly  gave  that  party  some  totally  unprecedented  new  electoral  strength,  that  became   nearly  comparable  to  that  of   CCM.   These examples show that the voters were  obviously  voting  for  the  respective  individuals,  and,  consequently,   the  relevant  political  party  became  the  beneficiary.    

 It is thus reasonable to   expect that CCM will  similarly  benefit  from   the  huge  majority  of  voters  who  will  vote  for  Magufuli   in  this  year’s  general  election.

(Will continue next week).

piomsekwa@gmail.com/0754767576.