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| Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al Sisi When he pulled former president Mohamed Morsi's government, some Egyptians especially anti-Morsi regarded Field marshal Abdul Fattah al Sisi as as a liberator little knowing that he had his own ambition. al Sisi mobilized the military to stand behind anti-Morsi demonstrators to see to it that Morsi was kicked out of power. Interestingly, the west that has always lectured other countries on democracy, kept mum even when they evidenced a democratically-elected government been booted out by military in conjunction with some demonstrators.Many analysts still wonder. Why did the west abandoned the ship in Egypt? Were they tired of meddling into Egyptian internal affairs after supporting anti-Mubarak demonstrations that saw Egyptian long time dictator fall? Did they ignoring Morsi simply because he was sponsored by Muslim Brotherhood which is now banned and declared a terrorist group in Egypt? Did the west want to avert the stalemate and impasse we are witnessing in Libya after deposing Muamar Gaddafi? Will west's silence help to calm down the situation things in Egypt or complicate it? |
To best understand how complicated the situation is in Egypt, one should consider three players in Egypt. There is the majority that is also divided between pro- and anti-Morsi, Islamists under Muslim Brotherhood and the military. Arguably, despite some of this tripartite understanding and horse trading as it was evidenced after Morsi was overthrown, the truth i: The trio can't reconcile or work together forever given that they have different aims as far as power is concerned. Pro-democracy demonstrators who are in the main the youths want democracy and development. Islamist aspire to erect an Islamic regime while military want to have a lion share in government if not to keep on dominating politics in Egypt as it has been since independence.
The trio might use each other for each to reach his goal. Again, such marriage is always temporary and convenient one.
Now it is clear that a section of Egyptians are opposed to al Sisi's manoeuvres to run for presidency. And looking at the look of things, such a section can't be wished away easily or ignored. Such a move was evidenced recently when some demonstrators took to the streets to voice their opposition to what they see as military machinations to cling unto power. They feel they were used by the military to topple Morsi and cling unto power. To them the military has failed for failing to form a transition government that would have seen Egyptian re-writing its constitution and having a new democratically elected government. Almost a year down the line, Morsi shocked pro-democracy when he announced that he might run for the presidency after the military and some of his supporters asked him to. This did not augur well with Islamist who would like to see their deposed president be reinstated and pro-democracy who want to see democratically elected president.
Now it is clear that a section of Egyptians are opposed to al Sisi's manoeuvres to run for presidency. And looking at the look of things, such a section can't be wished away easily or ignored. Such a move was evidenced recently when some demonstrators took to the streets to voice their opposition to what they see as military machinations to cling unto power. They feel they were used by the military to topple Morsi and cling unto power. To them the military has failed for failing to form a transition government that would have seen Egyptian re-writing its constitution and having a new democratically elected government. Almost a year down the line, Morsi shocked pro-democracy when he announced that he might run for the presidency after the military and some of his supporters asked him to. This did not augur well with Islamist who would like to see their deposed president be reinstated and pro-democracy who want to see democratically elected president.
In principle, the marriage between anti-Morsi and military will soon hit rocks. If anything, this point of departure is but the source of Egypt's problems. What seems to be a calm aura was just transitional. al Sisi's declaration for tightening grip on power will soon open Pandora's Box for Egypt. Major question is: Who will easily let go among the trio? Will the military vanquish the voice of the people or cave in and allow democratically elected government to come in? Will Muslim Brotherhood be brought into the fold or be left out in the cold? Is it possible to bring Muslim Brotherhood to the fold without reinstating their deposed president?
Now that the army that has been in the big picture faces a threat from pro-democracy and pro-Morsi demonstrators, what'd we expect? Should we expect anti-Morsi opposition to ascend to power under al Sisi? Will opposition leaders such Mohamed EL Baradei accept this? Do such divided opposition have what it takes to outsmart the army or does the army have what it takes to silence opposition to its head?
Now that the army that has been in the big picture faces a threat from pro-democracy and pro-Morsi demonstrators, what'd we expect? Should we expect anti-Morsi opposition to ascend to power under al Sisi? Will opposition leaders such Mohamed EL Baradei accept this? Do such divided opposition have what it takes to outsmart the army or does the army have what it takes to silence opposition to its head?
In sum, Egypt's future is murky especially if all players hold on their guns. It is time that international community intervenes to see to it that democracy is restored so that people can go on with their business. Failure to returning democracy in Egypt even al Sisi's stint in power will create another pre-Mubarak's fall from power and grace. The major question one may ask is: is it time for al Sisi to go or cling?
Source: African Executive Magazine March 19, 2014.
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