By Makau Mutua
Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.What you need to know:
I think Mr Ngunyi tries to predict what he thinks is going to happen.
On the other hand, my crystal ball isn’t strictly a tool of prognostication. I am not a seer. I recently read an intriguing article with a strange title, ‘Is Mutahi Ngunyi the oracle of Kenyan politics?’ [Daily Nation, March 2, 2021]. In the piece, writer Chris Orwa purported to handicap my ability versus Mr Ngunyi’s to predict political events.
Mr Orwa clothed his opinion in the garb of erudite academia. He presented his conclusions as “research”. I was flabbergasted. Not because I am a political prophet, but due to Mr Orwa’s manifest sleight of hand. It was obvious the author was simply out to get me. Or put more bluntly, intent on discrediting my “famous” crystal ball. Well, I have news for him – my crystal ball isn’t a medieval mystical mystery. Leave my crystal ball alone.
Let me give the devil his due. Mr Orwa got one thing right. In the time period he considered, Mr Ngunyi’s predictions were accurate 69 per cent of the time. He drew blanks 31 per cent of the time. In contrast, according to him, I toiled in futility 81 per cent of the time, and only hit bullseye 19 per cent of the time.
On the face of it, the math would show that Mr Ngunyi gave me a shellacking. They say numbers don’t lie. However, don’t they? One thing I know is that you can interpret data in many ways to get to any desired result. That’s why Mr Orwa’s stats must be interrogated. I wasn’t going to take this lying down.
Let’s dig deeper. The first fatal error Mr Orwa made was to compare apples to oranges. No competent researcher would make such a colossal error. Apples aren’t oranges, and oranges aren’t apples. You can only contrast them, not compare them. Any such comparison would skew the outcome and present a false narrative.
I'm not a kamuti worker
You see, I only eat apples when I want to eat them, but not when I want to eat oranges. In fact, it’s folly to eat both at the same time. What’s my point? I think Mr Ngunyi tries to predict what he thinks is going to happen. On the other hand, my crystal ball isn’t strictly a tool of prognostication. I am not a seer.
If I was a witchdoctor, or a kamuti [Kamba magic] worker, I would peer into my cowrie shells and other assorted tools of the trade and see the future. However, I am not, although I disclose here I am descended from a great African “medicine man”. Maybe that’s what Mr Ngunyi does when he “faces Mt Kenya”. Maybe Mutahi, the son of Ngunyi, “sees”. I don’t, and have refused to claim my hereditary kamuti powers.
My crystal ball is a tool that complexifies life – it educates, advocates, teases, entertains, promotes and annoys. It’s reviled and loved in equal measure. It leaves half of my readers infuriated. That’s how I like it – to get your blood pumping.
While the crystal ball is based on facts – and nothing else but facts – it’s not meant to be taken literally. Only simpletons would do so, if they’ve been reading me for decades.
Often, the crystal ball is satirical. It sometimes caricatures. It can be an attempt at faint praise that’s really oblique criticism, or even condemnation.
Progressive purposes
Alternatively, it may be just a way of me giving you a topic of conversation on a boring Sunday. In any case, I just want to tickle your brain and seduce you with ideas – sometimes by putting out the unthinkable. Mr Ngunyi, in contrast, does none of the above. Most of the time, he’s actually trying to “predict”, or misdirect the hoi polloi.
The second non sequitur offence that Mr Orwa committed was to compare actual writing in a column to tweeting. I mean – no offence intended, and I hope none is taken – Mr Ngunyi tweets more than he writes. Most of Mr Ngunyi’s predictions are in tweets. They are catchy one-liners, usually in bold caps. He has a large following on Twitter and he milks his tweeps for all they’ve got. They are addicted to his bombs. They drink his tweets like mama’s milk. Good for him. Usually, he predicts what’s obviously in the mind of the status quo. That’s why it’s not rocket science. He knows what the Deep State might do, and he gladly feeds it to you.
Lastly, Mr Orwa acknowledged – but downplayed it – the fact that my “predictions” are numerous whereas Mr Ngunyi’s are puny. Why is this important? That’s because your “error” rate goes up with more predictions. Mind you, I am not validating Mr Orwa’s “comparison” of our metrics by making this point. I am simply pointing out the “apples-to-oranges” problem again.
Therefore, my crystal ball isn’t from the Middle Earth, or the Lord of the Rings. It’s not even from the Book of Revelations. It’s rather a political device employed for progressive purposes. Its agenda is to advance democracy, not to give aid and comfort to cartels, public thieves, Mafioso, and the devil-knows-who.
Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor at Buffalo Law School. He’s chair of KHRC. @makaumutua.
On the other hand, my crystal ball isn’t strictly a tool of prognostication. I am not a seer. I recently read an intriguing article with a strange title, ‘Is Mutahi Ngunyi the oracle of Kenyan politics?’ [Daily Nation, March 2, 2021]. In the piece, writer Chris Orwa purported to handicap my ability versus Mr Ngunyi’s to predict political events.
Mr Orwa clothed his opinion in the garb of erudite academia. He presented his conclusions as “research”. I was flabbergasted. Not because I am a political prophet, but due to Mr Orwa’s manifest sleight of hand. It was obvious the author was simply out to get me. Or put more bluntly, intent on discrediting my “famous” crystal ball. Well, I have news for him – my crystal ball isn’t a medieval mystical mystery. Leave my crystal ball alone.
Let me give the devil his due. Mr Orwa got one thing right. In the time period he considered, Mr Ngunyi’s predictions were accurate 69 per cent of the time. He drew blanks 31 per cent of the time. In contrast, according to him, I toiled in futility 81 per cent of the time, and only hit bullseye 19 per cent of the time.
On the face of it, the math would show that Mr Ngunyi gave me a shellacking. They say numbers don’t lie. However, don’t they? One thing I know is that you can interpret data in many ways to get to any desired result. That’s why Mr Orwa’s stats must be interrogated. I wasn’t going to take this lying down.
Let’s dig deeper. The first fatal error Mr Orwa made was to compare apples to oranges. No competent researcher would make such a colossal error. Apples aren’t oranges, and oranges aren’t apples. You can only contrast them, not compare them. Any such comparison would skew the outcome and present a false narrative.
I'm not a kamuti worker
You see, I only eat apples when I want to eat them, but not when I want to eat oranges. In fact, it’s folly to eat both at the same time. What’s my point? I think Mr Ngunyi tries to predict what he thinks is going to happen. On the other hand, my crystal ball isn’t strictly a tool of prognostication. I am not a seer.
If I was a witchdoctor, or a kamuti [Kamba magic] worker, I would peer into my cowrie shells and other assorted tools of the trade and see the future. However, I am not, although I disclose here I am descended from a great African “medicine man”. Maybe that’s what Mr Ngunyi does when he “faces Mt Kenya”. Maybe Mutahi, the son of Ngunyi, “sees”. I don’t, and have refused to claim my hereditary kamuti powers.
My crystal ball is a tool that complexifies life – it educates, advocates, teases, entertains, promotes and annoys. It’s reviled and loved in equal measure. It leaves half of my readers infuriated. That’s how I like it – to get your blood pumping.
While the crystal ball is based on facts – and nothing else but facts – it’s not meant to be taken literally. Only simpletons would do so, if they’ve been reading me for decades.
Often, the crystal ball is satirical. It sometimes caricatures. It can be an attempt at faint praise that’s really oblique criticism, or even condemnation.
Progressive purposes
Alternatively, it may be just a way of me giving you a topic of conversation on a boring Sunday. In any case, I just want to tickle your brain and seduce you with ideas – sometimes by putting out the unthinkable. Mr Ngunyi, in contrast, does none of the above. Most of the time, he’s actually trying to “predict”, or misdirect the hoi polloi.
The second non sequitur offence that Mr Orwa committed was to compare actual writing in a column to tweeting. I mean – no offence intended, and I hope none is taken – Mr Ngunyi tweets more than he writes. Most of Mr Ngunyi’s predictions are in tweets. They are catchy one-liners, usually in bold caps. He has a large following on Twitter and he milks his tweeps for all they’ve got. They are addicted to his bombs. They drink his tweets like mama’s milk. Good for him. Usually, he predicts what’s obviously in the mind of the status quo. That’s why it’s not rocket science. He knows what the Deep State might do, and he gladly feeds it to you.
Lastly, Mr Orwa acknowledged – but downplayed it – the fact that my “predictions” are numerous whereas Mr Ngunyi’s are puny. Why is this important? That’s because your “error” rate goes up with more predictions. Mind you, I am not validating Mr Orwa’s “comparison” of our metrics by making this point. I am simply pointing out the “apples-to-oranges” problem again.
Therefore, my crystal ball isn’t from the Middle Earth, or the Lord of the Rings. It’s not even from the Book of Revelations. It’s rather a political device employed for progressive purposes. Its agenda is to advance democracy, not to give aid and comfort to cartels, public thieves, Mafioso, and the devil-knows-who.
Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor at Buffalo Law School. He’s chair of KHRC. @makaumutua.
Source: Daily Nation tomorrow.
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