Is the Beginning of the end of the Sudanese Junta Approaching?

By Nkwazi Mhango

No doubt. Every end of something is the beginning of another thing and vice versa. The military junta in Sudan is fraught and vulnerable after making many pointless mistakes in its desperation to survive to no avail though.  That’s why its head, Abdul Fattah Burhan said that it intends to let civilians negotiate how to run a transitional government if his promise actually comes off or make any sense. He knows all Sudanese people are all in the demand for a civilian rule. We all remember how unceremoniously Sudanese long-time dictator; Omar Bashir’s pulled down after people persisted in the streets. We also know how his henchmen in Abdul Fattah Burhan and chief genocidaire of Darfur, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo who together myopically cheated the people and stole people’s revolution up until now.  Had the duo allowed the opposition to form the government, maybe, just maybe, would be safe and their future safeguarded under symbiotic existence if not under the marriage of convenience. If the top brass were smart, it’d have used its centrality in its role of supporting the ousting of Bashir to leverage the opposition with which would team up and form the government in which the military would retain the role of protecting it.

Again, what’s been ongoing in the streets of numerous Sudanese cities speaks to the fact that the beginning of the end of this carbuncular junta is quickly approaching. Although the junta’s clung on power since its illegal takeover, by and by, various forces will bring the outfit like the one it replaced after betraying its former head, Bashir. Thus, the following reasons either together or any of them will soon necessitate the death/end of the junta in Sudan.

Firstly, the global precarious economic and political situation resulting from the war in Ukraine that’s exacerbated living costs globally.  If rich and stable countries have already felt the heat, what of dependent, poor, and wobbly country like Sudan? Given that the junta’s ugly in its actions and manners, even Gulf backers are likely to abandon it at its hour of need so that it can fall as the only way of saving Sudan from becoming a failed state. I wonder why the pâtés of the junta have failed to see such an obvious reeling reality in the first place.

Secondly, the truth that Bashir’s regime was unexpectedly pulled down just because of the price of bread and other necessities, which’s been astronomically raising thence. Methinks. Sudanese are facing a worse situation than it’s under Bashir. If Bashir––––who’s as shrewd as the mighty greater rabbit-eared bandicoot failed––––what can his stooges do better than and differently from him?

Thirdly, the resilience of Sudanese people, which’s necessitated by the hardship they’ve endured for many years after––––South Sudan whose oil used to maintain dictatorship––––seceded although this move became counterproductive. What adds salt to injuries is the fact that the current ham-fisted regime spends much money on trying to silence the voices of the people instead of channelling the same money to assuage the hardships Sudanese people’s been facing wantonly.

Fourthly, apart from the hardships Sudanese have been facing without any respite, the brutality of the regime’s unleashed on demonstrators seems to have hardened them to fight even more resiliently something that has telling effects on the future of the regime. Because of such wanton brutality something has to give. This means the regime will commit more brutality something that’ll add to the already pent-up anger.

Fifthly, the incompetence of the regime will add more perils the regime whose vulnerability’s obvious so as to become careless and desperate for any means that can keep it afloat. The heads of this regime, first, have neither political agenda nor experience. Theirs are the agenda for plundering the country and clinging to power to avoid being arraigned by the ICC for the genocide they committed in Darfur under Bashir.

Sixthly, if there’s a hard nut to crack for the junta’s nothing but Bashir’s remnants that aren’t satisfied with what’s happening or those who were excluded from power, especially his party. Such a people feel it isn’t only vulnerable from the regime but also from the reality that they now have nobody or vehicle to assure it of its future security underscoring that many committed many crimes against Sudan and Sudanese in general.

Seventhly, Sudan hasn’t only hardened but also organised and resilient opposition whose following’s growing by days. The opposition has already created the vulnerability for the regime that’d like to see it quashed or compromised. Knowing the true colour of the junta, the opposition has refused to share the same divan with it.

Eighthly, another reason that’ll keep Sudanese organised against the military cabal are the human losses and injuries they’ve already suffered. Those who lost their beloved ones or suffered injuries inflicted by the military have nothing to lose except to fight even harder to see to it that the junta’s pulled down so that justice can be done for them and their beloved ones. They’d like to see the top brass behind bars like Bashir.

In sum, Sudanese junta soon will crumble down. Although it’s survived for almost a year, soon it’ll face the reality. Had its heads had the sense of reading the signs of time, it is time for them to ponder on leaving before being forced to do so unexpectedly.

Source: African Executive Magazine tomorrow.