History’s
a tendency of repeating itself. It can repeat itself in the same place
or in a different one but with almost the same characteristics.
Currently, Mozambique is under siege. Resistência Nacional Moçambicana
(RENAMO) is in the bush fighting to topple the ruling Frente de
Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO).
Frelimo-Renamo-bad
blood goes back to 1975 the year it was formed by its founder the late
Andre Matsangaissa who was killed by the Mozambican Army on 17 October
1979 and was succeeded by Alfonso Dhlakama. RENAMO waged guerrilla war
that caused mayhem to this nation since 1975 to 1992.
RENAMO
was found shortly before Mozambique attained her independence under the
leadership of FRELIMO that trounced RENAMO in the election prior to
freedom. After reluctant and defeated Portuguese colonial
master handed freedom over to FRELIMO, RENAMO decided to go to bush to
see to it that it fights and topples the legitimate elected government
under FRELIMO. Sadly for RENAMO, its goals were not
achieved. Thus, in 1992 peace accord between the duo was reached under
the supervision of the United Nations Operation in Mozambique (ONUMOZ)
until 1994.
After
putting guns down, it was agreed that RENAMO should undergo
metamorphosis itself into a political party. Thus, be able and eligible
to participate in elections and other political activities. True, in
1994 RENAMO was welcomed to the game whereby its leader Alphonso Dlakama
faced former president Joachim Chissano who trounced him by 52.3% to
47.7% and concealed defeat.
Dlakama didn’t throw towel in. In 2004 he tried again this time against new candidate Armando Guebuza who once again trounced him by 63.7% against 31.7%.
As
it was with Chissano, Dlakama, once again in 2009, faced incumbent
president comrade Guebuza who carried the day. If anything, such defeat
became the straw that broke camel’s back for RENAMO. You can’t teach old
dog new tricks. Thus, after experiencing four defeats, in October 2012
Dlakama decided to call it quits with regards to democratic competition.
Instead, he chose to go back to his traditional method, guerrilla war. Dhlakama
called his supporters back to their old military base close to the
Gorongosa Game Park where they are currently doing battle with old
enemy-cum-political competitor, FRELIMO.
Looking
at the RENAMO’S genesis and trajectory, something similar appears as
far as União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (UNITA) is
concerned. The difference is: UNITA was found in 1966 as opposed to
RENAMO which was conceived nine years after. Again, looking at the way
the duo operated and went up and down; one can notice more similarities
than contrasts. Though in different years, RENAMO and UNITA did
participate in general elections in their respective countries after
fighting for a long time and causing a lot of problems. UNITA entered
the game in 1992 after signing the Bicesse Accords, also known as the
Estoril Accords in
1990. As it was for Dlakama, UNITA’s candidate Jonas
Savimbi who faced Angolan long time president Eduardo Jose Dos Santos,
lost by 19% to72%.
Once
again, in 2008 UNITA under its leader Savimbi participated in the
general election in which it lost by the bigger margin of 85% by 10%. After
noticing that the ballot box offered less expectations to win president
than the barrel of gun, Savimbi decided to go back to the bush where he
was killed on February 22, 2002 marking the end of the era for him
and the era of war for his country as well.
Going back to RENAMO and Dlakama with similar trajectory, should we expect history to repeat itself? After
RENAMO won international support that convinced Mozambican government
to agree to negotiate with them and abused it, will there be another
such a chance? What is the solution to this crisis after
negotiations have proved not to work for long? Will Mozambique ape
Angola by killing Dlakama so as to enjoy everlasting peace or go back to
the drawing board? Sadly though, when the impasse in Mozambique is
growing bigger and bigger, the international community is a bit mum as
if the problem will solve itself. Should we allow another twenty years
of carnage and suffering in Mozambique or step in to avoid it. Where is
the UN? Why is it becoming harder for human race to learn
from its history? As Desmond Tutu put it that the lesson we get from
history is that we don’t learn from it.
However
oblivious war between Mozambique and RENAMO has been kept from the
mainstream media, destruction is going on in the ground. Maybe, it is
because of mega crises such as CAR, South Sudan, Mali even Syria that’s
why what’s going on in Mozambique is not covered or being heard. Again,
looking at the look of things, chances are that Dlakama is likely to end
up like Savimbi. This is especially possible once we look at the duo’s
trajectory and how busier the international community is without cold
war that used to feed Savimbi and Dlakama. Ironically, African Union
(AU) which is in charge of the continent seems to miss a point just like
it happened
recently in South Sudan. Should Africa stay aside and look waiting to
blame somebody for not intervening? Given that South Africa the
immediate neighbour is likely to be negative affected; it needs to start
devising how to intervene to help. This is inevitable after
experiencing the same effects from Zimbabwe.
Source: The African Executive Magazine Jan., 22, 2014.
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