Is GERD the Cause of Ethiopia's Quandaries?

When Ethiopia started to build the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) using its home generated finances, not many believed it meant business. Slowly but steadily, the GERD–––that’s seen as a dream became a reality–––became a pictogram of pride and a source of predicaments since the upriver countries are infelicitous with it. Noises are heard from some upriver neighbours complaining that the GERD would adversely impact on their lives. Being naturally egoistic and some proud and thinking are superior to others, humans are always for themselves even if doing so means to kill or suffocate others. For example, Egypt started to issue some threats to Ethiopia thinking that it would daunt it so as to cower to no avail.  Ethiopia stood its ground and pushed on with its project. After finding that the game it’s playing didn’t move Ethiopia, Egypt invited its bugaboo in the South, North Sudan to add more pressure and hullabaloos to no avail. Ethiopia didn’t want to make any goof or take any guff in this matter. Off it went and took on the Həzbawi wäyanä Harənnät Təgray or the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)­­­–––an ethnopluralist and ethnonationalist group–––that Zenawi found in 1988 and lead up until it toppled the derg, which was under the leadership of Mengistu Haile Mariam for many years.  Essentially, the TPLF  morphed itself into the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) or the ye’ītiyop’iya ḥizibochi ābiyotawī dīmokirasīyawī, which was an amalgamation of tribal parties led by tribal warlords. After battling it out for a while over the Nile as it also took on the TPFL, Ethiopia submitted its case against Egypt before the AU seeking how to address the issue to no avail since it jumped over to the UN before the AU issued its verdict on the matter.

            In Africa, civil wars aren’t a new thingamajig. However, most of them do bare some foreign hallmarks. For example, currently, in Mali, and Tuareg rebels supported by foreign terrorist groups are giving the government hard time. Although the situation in Mali is different from the one in Ethiopia, they share one hallmark that such civil wars can’t sustain without foreign supports among which can be military or criminal networks/countries that can help the groups to raise money through committing crimes.

            We need to ask the timing of Tigray uprising that’s surprised many including the government in Addis Ababa. Those who know the history of the TPFL, it’s Ethiopian ruling movement as the NRM is in Uganda or the RPF in Rwanda. However, after the death of Meles Zenawi, former Ethiopian prime minister, there transpired some power squabbles over who’s to preside over this tribalistic group that portended to exercise nationalistic politics. Being in power for many years after ousting former dictatorship, when Zenawi died, those around him wanted to see to it that they cling to power. However, the coming of Ahmed Abiy, an Oromo as PM–––a political newbie but zippy–––disturbed the equilibrium and power balance that he tilted to his favour and against the Tigray power brokers. This is where the hot-blooded bone actually is.

            Those who know how Ethiopia brought down the derg–––after toppling emperor Haile Selassie–––will agree with us that the current civil war in Ethiopia is typical tribal and tyrannical. Why Tigray uprisings now while Abiy made Ethiopia proud and maintained the prompt development and economic miracle Zenawi started? He received the 2019 Peace Nobel Prize becoming one among a few in Africa. Why is the TPFL started war after Ethiopia entered into peace agreement with its long-time secessionist Eritrea? Who’s behind this dangerous project that wants to drive Africa to the abyss? Those who knows the realpolitik and geopolitics of Africa know there’s more than meets the eye. Whose interests is Tigray fighting for through destroying its own country. Where does it get the muscles to intimidate the federal state and what next? Are Ethiopians and Africa in general ready to have an Egyptian stooge in power in Ethiopia as was the case of Sudan under Omar Bashir?

Is genocide in the making in Ethiopia after Abiy referred to the TPFL as the cancer that Ethiopians need to weed out?  Will the AU stay aside and look while the Horn of Africa’s burning for the detriment of the entire region? Currently, Eritrea, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan even Uganda are but crucibles waiting to explode. The DRC exploded many years ago not to mention Cameroon, the CAR and wobbly, Mali, Nigeria and Niger that face the terrorisations from Islamic jihadists in the Maghreb.

            To help Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa and Africa in general, the AU and the international community need to get to the bottom of the conflict and know who’s behind the conflict in Ethiopia, especially if they consider those who think the GERD will adversely affect them all manner of ways and what they’re homing in on as the hunch of everything. There’s no way the interests of one country can affect the entire continent. Instead of using the guns to address the issue, peaceful negotiations should start quickly and agreements be entered chop-chop hereof.

Source: African Executive Magazine Wednesday tomorrow.